D838. America Is Back!
A very remarkable series of event took shape in June, 2025. So far, they're almost all talk. But it's talk that was scrupulously avoided, denied and opposed for many preceding years. The culminating event is the dramatic agreement by other NATO companies to greatly increase their spending on defense. Previously, they had ignored or bad-mouthed the former "target" of 2% of GDP. Now they've agreed to a new target of 5% of GDP.
You could read the sequence of events like this. Trump bombed Iran--for the first time. (Supposedly, he was only attacking the country's nuclear program, and not the nation itself. But he threatened more.). The bombing showed us as a more forward or risk-taking ally--at least for Israel. So, this made the case for the Europeans doing what it took to keep us as guarantors?
That's illogical! Trump's reasons for supporting Israel--and public opinion on this subject--are dramatically different from the NATO case! No, something else came into play here to make the Europeans finally fall in line..
The widespread adherence to religious fanaticism is the mainstream of Iran's policy. This Shi'a fanaticism is based on the doctrine that an Armageddon-like catastrophe is needed to bring the "hidden Mahdi" back, in order to inaugurate a something akin to Christ's Second Coming, the Kingdom of God on Earth.
Nuclear weapons are the sole means open to the Ayatollahs to bring about such an Armageddon and attain the goals of the Jihadis. That's also why none of the Axis nuclear powers could contemplate helping Iran to become nuclear. None of them trusts, much less supports, any form of religion.
Hence, America's willingness to do whatever is needed to keep Iran non-nuclear is now recognized as essential to world safety. That's the main force impelling the sudden European reversal of longstanding policies of supine dependence on our protection. So, when Trump went to the NATO meeting--it turned out to be a love fest where we were multiply praised and acclaimed. Because only we can keep Iran non-nuclear now.
Many years of failed attempts to "get Europe to pay for its defense," capped by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, had achieved almost nothing. Trump had repeatedly expressed distaste for the US retaining a continuing obligation to defend Europe. And then this sudden reversal. Germany has targeted building the largest military in Europe, doubling its spending in five years!
Trump now gives the impression that if Europe will pay enough for its defense (a goal which will take years to achieve)--then he's amenable to the US continuing from now on to extend its defense umbrella over the continent. Indeed, that's what he had earlier suggested. So, if Russia invades Lithuania or Poland (NATO members), we will intervene and even send soldiers in order to protect these countries.
Meanwhile, and beyond the end of Trump's term, this leaves us on the hook. From which Trump had promised to disengage us. It is contrary to the "pivot towards Asia" and defense against China that he had again and again led us to anticipate. This, as well as our diving into the Middle East's eternal quagmire, is good news for the Chinese.
Let's cancel that. I'd urge our having a quiet word with Iran encouraging them(!) to shut Hormuz--and hence cut the flow of oil that China desperately needs. Our pals in Qatar, UAE and Saudi will then sell less oil, but at higher prices. Maybe they will then become less friendly to the Iranian regime--a quite new friendship for which China has taken credit!